Entertainment Weekly Predicts the Oscars

Entertainment Weekly´s Oscar Predictions:

Best Actress:

Reese Witherspoon 50 %
Felicity Huffman 35 %

Best Actor:

Philip Seymour Hoffman 35 %
Heath Ledger 30 %

Best Supporting Actress:

Rachel Weisz 35 %
Michelle Williams 30 %

Best Supporting Actor:

George Clooney 30 %
Matt Dillon 25 %
Paul Giamatti 25 %

Best Director:

Ang Lee 40 %
George Clooney 20 %
Paul Haggis 20 %

Best Picture:

Brokeback Mountain 35 %
Crash 30 %

Adapted Screenplay:

Brokeback Mountain 35 %
Capote 30 %

Best Original Screenplay:

Crash 35 %
Good Night, and Good Luck. 30 %

The Other Categories:

Art Direction: Geisha
Editing: Crash
Score: Geisha
Song: Into the Deep
VFX: King Kong
Sound Editing: King Kong
Sound Mixing: Walk the Line
Costume: Geisha
Cinematography: Brokeback Mountain
Makeup: Narnia
Foreign Language: Tsotsi
Animated: Wallace and Gromit
Animated Short: 9
Doc Feature: March of the Penguins
Doc Short: Death of Kevin Carter
Live Action Short: Ausreisser

Contenders 2006

From the Oscarwatch forums 2006 films with Oscar potential (plot outlines from IMDB):

Flags Of Our Fathers

dir: Clint Eastwood

The life stories of the six men who raised the flag at The Battle of Iwo Jima, a turning point in WWII.

The Departed

dir: Martin Scorsese

The remake of the 2002 Hong Kong hit film revolves around a rivalry between the Massachusetts police force and an Irish-American gang. A gangster is chosen to infiltrate the police force while a young police officer is chosen to infiltrate the gang. When their paths cross, what will be the result?

Youth Without Youth

dir: Francis Ford Coppola

A pre-WWII drama where a life-changing incident turns a professor into a fugitive.

Marie Antoinette

dir: Sofia Coppola

Based on Antonia Fraser's book about the ill-fated Archduchess of Austria and later Queen of France, 'Marie Antoinette' tells the story of the most misunderstood and abused woman in history, from her birth in Imperial Austria to her later life in France.

Dreamgirls

dir: Bill Condon

Based on the Broadway musical, a trio of black female soul singers cross over to the pop charts in the early 1960's.

The Good Shepherd

dir: Robert DeNiro

The tumultuous early history of the Central Intelligence Agency is viewed through the prism of one man's life.

The DaVinci Code

dir: Ron Howard

A murder in the Louvre and clues in Da Vinci paintings lead to the discovery of a religious mystery protected by a secret society for two thousand years -- which could shake the foundations of Christianity.

A Good Year

dir: Ridley Scott

An Englishman (Crowe) inherits a vineyard in Provence. Upon arriving at his new property, he meets an American woman who claims that the land is hers.

The Good German

dir: Steven Soderbergh

In post-war Berlin to find his former mistress, an American journalist is lured into a murder mystery.

Breaking and Entering

dir: Anthony Minghella

An architect's dealings with a young thief cause him to re-evaluate his life.

Goya's Ghost

dir: Milos Forman

Painter Francisco Goya faces a scandal involving his muse, who is labeled a heretic by a monk.

Scoop

dir: Woody Allen

An American student (Johansson) in London begins an affair with an aristocrat.

Flight 93

dir: Paul Greengrass

A real time account of the events on United Flight 93, one of the planes hijacked on 9/11 that crashed near Shanksville, Pennsylvania when passengers foiled the terrorist plot.

September/World Trade Center

dir: Oliver Stone

Two Port Authority police officers become trapped under the rubble of the World Trade Center.

Fur

dir: Steven Shainberg

A chronicle of the life of Diane Arbus, the revered photographer whose images captured attention in the early 1960s. After her suicide in 1971, she became the first American photographer to be exhibited at the Venice Biennale.

Notes on a Scandal

dir: Richard Eyre

A pottery teacher (Blanchett) enters into an affair with one of her students, causing upheaval in her personal and professional lives.

Che

dir: Steven Soderbergh

An epic about Argentine revolutionary Che Guevara, who fought for the people.

All the Kings Men

dir: Steven Zaillian

Based on the Robert Penn Warren novel. The life of populist Southerner Willie Stark, a political creature loosely based on Governor Huey Long of Louisiana.

A Prairie Home Companion

dir: Robert Altman

A look at what goes on backstage during the last broadcast of America's most celebrated radio show, where singing cowboys Dusty and Lefty, a country music siren (Streep), and a host of others hold court.

Inland Empire

dir: David Lynch

Set in the inland valley outside of Los Angeles, David Lynch's new film is a mystery about a woman in trouble.

Little Children

dir: Todd Field

Little Children centers on a group of young marrieds, whose lives intersect on the playgrounds, town pools and streets of their small community in surprising and potentially dangerous ways.

Volver

dir: Pedro Almodovar

After her death, a mother (Maura) returns to her home town in order to fix the situations should couldn't resolve during her life. Of her family left in the town, her ghost slowly becomes a comfort to her daughters (Cruz, Dueñas), as well as her grandchild (Cobo).

The Painted Veil

dir: John Curran

A woman becomes dissatisfied with her marriage, as her husband favors of his research over time with her. An affair leads her on a journey of self-discovery, and her new dedication to fighting cholera brings her to the Far East.

Margaret

dir: Kenneth Lonergan

A young woman (Paquin) witnesses a bus accident, and is caught up in the aftermath, where the question of whether or not it was intentional affects many people's lives.

The Black Dahlia

dir: Brian DePalma

An adaptation of James Ellroy's 1940s-set novel about two L.A. cops who head up the hunt for the killer of fledgling actress Elizabeth Short.

Copying Beethoven

dir: Agnieszka Holland

A fictionalized account of the last year of Beethoven's life.

Babel

dir: Alejandro González Iñárritu

Three stories set in Morocco, Tunisia, Mexico and Japan. The story begins with a tragedy striking a married couple on vacation.

Infamous

dir: Douglas McGrath

While researching his book In Cold Blood, writer Truman Capote (Jones) develops a close relationship with convicted murderers Dick Hickock and Perry Smith.

The Children of Men

dir: Alfonso Cuaron

In 2027, in a chaotic world in which man can no longer procreate, a former activist agrees to help transport a miraculously pregnant woman to a sanctuary at sea where her child's birth may help scientists save the future of mankind.

.................................................. .....................................

If released:

Red Sun, Black Sand

dir: Clint Eastwood

Team of Rivals

dir: Steven Spielberg

WGA for Brokeback Mountain and Crash

The Writers Guild of America announced the winners of the 2006 Writers Guild Awards as follows:

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

CRASH, Screenplay by Paul Haggis & Bobby Moresco, Story by Paul Haggis, Lionsgate

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN, Screenplay by Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana, Based on the Short Story by Annie Proulx, Focus Features

Entertainment Weekly´s Oscar Issue

Entertainment Weekly´s Nominee´s Spotlight gives us:

1. Picture: Brokeback Mountain
1. Director: Ang Lee
1. Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman
1. Actress: Reese Witherspoon
1. Supporting Actor: George Clooney
1. Supporting Actress: Rachel Weisz

Please see for more details www.ew.com

Pretty good predictions this year

I was in 3rd tied place in the Oscarwatch´s predict the nominees contest. I did pretty well this year but I will have to admit that this year had no surprises (although I was hoping for them). I guess this has been one of my best years ever but of course predicting the winners is a whole another game...

Please see www.oscarwatch.com for more details.

Oscar nomination predictions

As they were:


BEST PICTURE

• Brokeback Mountain
• Walk the Line -->MUNICH
• Good Night, and Good Luck
• Crash
• Capote


• Spoiler: The Constant Gardener



BEST DIRECTOR

• Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain
• George Clooney - Good Night, and Good Luck
• Fernando Meirelles - The Constant Gardener -->BENNETT MILLER - CAPOTE
• Paul Haggis - Crash
• Steven Spielberg - Munich


• Spoiler: Bennett Miller - Capote



BEST ACTOR

• Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain
• Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote
• Joaquin Phoenix - Walk the Line
• David Strathairn - Good Night, and Good Luck
• Terrence Howard - Hustle & Flow


• Spoiler: Russell Crowe - Cinderella Man



BEST ACTRESS

• Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line
• Felicity Huffman - Transamerica
• Charlize Theron - North Country
• Judi Dench - Mrs. Henderson Presents
• Keira Knightley - Pride and Prejudice


• Spoiler: Joan Allen - The Upside of Anger



BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• George Clooney - Syriana
• Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man
• Matt Dillon - Crash
• Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
• Bob Hoskins - Mrs. Henderson Presents -->WILLIAM HURT - A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE


• Spoiler: William Hurt - A History of Violence



BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener
• Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain
• Frances McDormand - North Country
• Maria Bello - A History of Violence -->AMY ADAMS - JUNEBUG
• Catherine Keener - Capote


• Spoiler: Amy Adams - Junebug



BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• Grant Heslov, George Clooney - Good Night, and Good Luck
• Paul Haggis, Robert Moresco - Crash
• Stephen Gaghan - Syriana
• Woody Allen - Match Point
• Noah Baumbach - The Squid and the Whale


• Spoiler: Akiva Goldsman, Cliff Hollingsworth - Cinderella Man



BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• Larry McMurtry, Diana Ossana - Brokeback Mountain
• Dan Futterman - Capote
• Jeffrey Caine - The Constant Gardener
• Josh Olson - A History of Violence
• Tony Kushner & Eric Roth - Munich


• Spoiler: Dennis & Mangold - Walk the Line



BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

• Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
• Tim Burton´s The Corpse Bride
• Madagascar -->HOWL´S MOVING CASTLE



BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

• Fan and the Flower -->BADGERED
• Milch -->THE MOON AND THE SON: AN IMAGINED CONVERSATION
• Moongirl -->THE MYSTERIOUS GEOGRAPHIC EXPLORATIONS OF JASPER MORELLO
• xx -->9
• xx-->ONE MAN BAND



BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

• Tsotsi - South Africa
• Paradise Now - Palestine
• Joyeux Noel - France
• The Promise - China -->SOPHIE SCHOLL - THE FINAL DAYS - GERMANY
• Mother of Mine - Finland -->DON´T TELL - ITALY



BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

• March of the Penguins
  
• Murderball
• Mad, Hot Ballroom -->DARWIN´S NIGHTMARE
• Favela Rising -->STREET FIGHT
• Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room



BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

• xx -->THE DEATH OF KEVIN CARTER: CASUALTY OF THE BANG BANB CLUB
• xx -->GOD SLEEPS IN RWANDA
• xx -->THE MUSHROOM CLUB
• xx -->A NOTE OF TRIUMPH: THE GOLDEN AGE OF NORMAN CORWIN



BEST ART DIRECTION

• King Kong
• Chronicles of Narnia -->HARRY POTTER AND THE GOBLET OF FIRE
• Memoirs of a Geisha
• Good Night, and Good Luck
• Walk the Line -->PRIDE AND PREJUDICE



VISUAL EFFECTS

• King Kong
• Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith --> THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE LION
• War of the Worlds



BEST COSTUME DESIGN

• Pride and Prejudice
• Mrs. Henderson Presents
• Walk the Line
• Memoirs of a Geisha
• Charlie and the Chocolate Factory



BEST MAKE UP

• The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
• Mrs. Henderson Presents -->STAR WARS: EPISODE III REVENGE OF THE SITH
• Cinderella Man



BEST EDITING

• Crash
• Brokeback Mountain -->CINDERELLA MAN
• The Constant Gardener
• Good Night, and Good Luck -->MUNICH
• Walk the Line



BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• Brokeback Mountain
• Good Night, and Good Luck
• King Kong -->BATMAN BEGINS
• Memoirs of a Geisha
• The Constant Gardener -->THE NEW WORLD



BEST SOUND MIXING

• Walk the Line
• King Kong
• Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
• War of the Worlds
• Memoirs of a Geisha



BEST SOUND EDITING

• King Kong
• Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith -->MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
• War of the Worlds



BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• John Williams - Memoirs of a Geisha
• Gustavo Santaollala - Brokeback Mountain
• James Newton Howard - King Kong -->THE CONSTANT GARDENER
• Thomas Newman - Cinderella Man -->PRIDE AND PREJUDICE
• John Williams - Munich



BEST SONG

• Hustle and Flow, Terence Howard - Hustle and Flow -->IT´S HARD OUT HERE FOR A PIMP - HUSTLE & FLOW
• Travelin' Thru, Dolly Parton - Transamerica
• In the Deep - Crash

Correct nominations: 80/109